Israel is facing a dilemma with Lebanon, as it does not make sense to open another front but also has a deep trust crisis with its citizens. The real threat of escalation comes from Israel, not Hezbollah. Netanyahu is desperate for a win or at least the optics of a win, and opening a second front with Lebanon might be the only option. Despite pressure to keep its response measured, Israel has the capabilities to strike. Netanyahu knows he is on his way out and has nothing to lose, making striking Lebanon a likely option.