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Yahya Sinwar's story: What finally led Hamas to invade Israel on Oct. 7?

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Former IDF intelligence chief Tamir Hayman provides insight into the factors that led Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to invade Israel on October 7. Sinwar's decision was influenced by the shifting regional dynamics and the perceived success of the May 2021 Gaza conflict. He believed that a larger operation against Israel could inflame multiple fronts and disrupt Israel's normalization process with Saudi Arabia. Sinwar also saw an opportunity to free Palestinian security prisoners and exploit Israel's perceived weakness due to public protests and political changes. Israel's misjudgment of Sinwar and its MABAM strategy further inflated its confidence.

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