North Africa is entering 2026 with strong economic growth and increasing strategic importance on the global stage, yet its underlying foundations remain fragile. Egypt and Morocco have led the region's recovery, with Egypt stabilizing after a near-default and Morocco benefiting from decades of reform and integration into European value chains. Meanwhile, Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and Mauritania lag behind, highlighting a growing divide between reform-driven and rent-dependent economies.

External powers now view North Africa as essential for security and migration management, but their engagement has become more transactional, prioritizing deals over governance reform. This shift, combined with demographic pressures and rapid climate change, is straining social contracts and making job creation and resource management urgent challenges. Social unrest persists in new forms, driven by practical grievances and organized through digital platforms.

The region faces mounting risks from climate stress, water scarcity, and global economic shifts, with success hinging on governments' ability to align energy transition, skills development, and regulatory reforms. Political trust and shared sacrifice are increasingly vital for legitimacy, as economic management alone no longer suffices. North Africa's trajectory will shape broader trends across the continent, serving as a testing ground for Africa's future resilience and stability.