Israeli military and intelligence officials are grappling with the near-miss of a large-scale Hezbollah invasion of northern Israel, which could have coincided with the October 7 attack from Gaza. Despite years of warnings and evidence of Hezbollah's detailed plans, the northern border was left dangerously exposed, with only a small force stationed to defend a long and rugged frontier. Internal debates within the military reveal a pattern of underestimating the threat, complacency, and a reliance on the assumption that ample warning would precede any attack.

Investigations and interviews highlight that thousands of Hezbollah fighters were poised to strike, and only a last-minute decision from Tehran may have prevented a devastating two-front war. The failure to prepare led to the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians and left many communities empty, while weapons caches uncovered in Lebanon underscored the scale of the threat. Critics argue that the military's leadership failed to act on repeated warnings, and that the official probes have not fully addressed the shortcomings in the north.

Since the events of October 7, the Israeli military claims to have overhauled its defensive posture on the northern border, doubling troop numbers, fortifying positions, and expanding local defense teams. However, analysts warn that the danger remains, and that only a thorough reckoning with past mistakes can ensure better preparedness for future threats.