Saudi Arabia is reaffirming its stance that normalization of relations with Israel will only occur if there is a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood, despite optimistic statements from U.S. President Donald Trump. As Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman prepares to visit Washington, Saudi officials have signaled that diplomatic recognition of Israel is contingent on concrete steps toward resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, including Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the empowerment of the Palestinian Authority.

The upcoming meeting between Trump and the crown prince is expected to focus primarily on defense cooperation and investment, with both sides aiming to finalize a limited defense pact that expands military and technological collaboration. This agreement falls short of the full treaty Saudi Arabia once sought, reflecting the complex linkage between defense, normalization, and Palestinian statehood.

Regional dynamics have shifted, with Iran's influence waning due to recent military setbacks, reducing the urgency for a binding U.S. defense guarantee. The proposed pact includes measures to limit Saudi ties with China and fast-track advanced U.S. weapons sales, while leaving open the possibility of evolving into a full treaty if normalization with Israel progresses.