If Iran's clerical regime collapses, Israel will face a pivotal strategic test, reminiscent of the dramatic shifts of 1979. While some may expect a move toward moderation, Israel must focus on what replaces the current regime and adapt quickly to new realities. Historically, Israel and Iran were once pragmatic partners, collaborating on energy and security before the 1979 revolution turned them into adversaries. The future could bring a pragmatic government, military rule, or dangerous fragmentation within Iran, each scenario carrying distinct risks and opportunities for Israel.

Israel's challenge will be to avoid strategic surprise, prepare for instability, and separate its approach to the Iranian people from its stance toward the regime. The transition period after any collapse could be especially perilous, with risks of proliferation and regional chaos. Hope for a better future must be matched by rigorous preparation and clear-eyed strategy, as the day after the regime falls will test Israel's ability to learn from history and safeguard its interests.