As the United States and Iran prepare for a crucial round of nuclear talks in Geneva, uncertainty looms over whether diplomacy will prevail or military action is imminent. Israel, closely coordinating with Washington, remains unsure of the American administration’s ultimate direction, especially after the United States issued a firm ultimatum demanding detailed Iranian concessions ahead of the meeting.

Iran is reportedly prepared to transfer half of its sixty percent enriched uranium to a third country and dilute the remainder domestically in exchange for significant sanctions relief. While this could mark progress, skepticism persists in Washington and Jerusalem, as the proposal would still leave Iran with enough material to potentially advance toward a nuclear weapon. Tehran has also sought the involvement of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, signaling an effort to lend credibility to its offer.

Analysts caution that Iran is unlikely to compromise on core strategic interests tied to regime survival and regional influence, even at the risk of military confrontation. Within the American administration, some officials argue that only a strike could shift Tehran’s calculus or destabilize its leadership. Israel fears that a limited attack might ultimately strengthen the regime rather than weaken it, raising the stakes in what could become a decisive moment for the region.