Jeremy Bowen reflects on the consequences of past American calls for uprisings, recalling how President George Bush in 1991 urged Iraqis to overthrow Saddam Hussein but did not intervene when rebellions began. The result was brutal retaliation by Hussein's forces against Shia and Kurdish communities, leading to mass killings, displacement and long term regional instability. Bowen draws on his own reporting from northern Iraq, where he witnessed the humanitarian catastrophe that followed.

He warns that President Donald Trump's calls for an uprising in Iran, alongside Israel's military campaign, risk repeating that history. While supporters argue that removing Iran's leadership could eliminate a dangerous regime and halt its nuclear ambitions, Bowen cautions that there is no clear political strategy for what would follow. Past interventions in Iraq show how toppling a regime without a viable plan can unleash sectarian violence, empower extremist groups and destabilise the wider region.

The article argues that the current conflict could reshape alliances, draw in regional powers and entangle the United States in another prolonged war despite promises to avoid such conflicts. Bowen suggests that starting wars is far easier than ending them, especially without a coherent end goal, and warns that the consequences of miscalculation could be severe and far reaching.