Fighting involving Iran, Israel and the United States has displaced an estimated 3.2 million people inside Iran, yet relatively few have fled abroad. The United Nations estimates that about 1,300 Iranians per day have crossed into Turkiye since the war began, with some days seeing more people return home than leave. Many families are choosing to shelter in place or relocate within the country, particularly to rural areas near the Caspian Sea.

Personal decisions reflect the deep uncertainty. Some, like a hairdresser who traveled nearly 1,500 kilometers to reach the Turkish border, hope to wait out the war abroad. Others are returning to Iran from overseas, unwilling to remain separated from relatives despite the danger. Financial hardship, concern for property and family, and logistical barriers have limited large-scale departures so far.

Neighboring countries and Europe are nonetheless preparing for the possibility of a wider migration crisis if infrastructure collapses or fighting intensifies, particularly in Tehran. Turkiye has strengthened its border and is planning temporary shelters, while the European Union is weighing its options as an earlier migration agreement with Turkiye comes up for renewal. Aid groups warn that reduced humanitarian funding and overlapping regional conflicts could leave the international community unprepared for a new refugee emergency.