image sourced from original article at The basmati rice industry in Punjab remains cautiously optimistic despite rising tensions in the Middle East that have disrupted shipping routes and increased operating costs by 10 to 15 percent. While markets in the United States and Europe continue to function normally, exports to parts of the Middle East have slowed due to port shutdowns and longer sea routes, leading to delays and higher working capital requirements for exporters.
Critical maritime hubs in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have faced disruptions, forcing exporters to seek alternative routes and manage rising freight, insurance, detention and port charges. At the same time, domestic stock levels in Punjab and Haryana are expected to fall significantly compared to last year, particularly if export targets of 63 lakh metric tonnes are achieved.
The disruption comes during Ramadan, a peak demand period, triggering panic buying in several Middle Eastern countries and pushing retail rice prices up by 20 to 25 percent. Trade experts warn that if shipping challenges continue for another month, the basmati trade could see a shortfall of 2 to 2.5 lakh metric tonnes. However, stronger demand from key markets such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and Yemen may help offset losses.
India has also become the primary rice supplier for Afghanistan amid border tensions with Pakistan, with reports of near-exhausted stocks in some regions. Despite logistical and payment challenges, experts expect overall export volumes to remain stable in the current and next financial year, with a modest increase over last year's 6.06 million tonnes.
