Nearly six weeks of war between the United States and Iran have ended in a ceasefire, with President Donald Trump declaring victory. However, analysts say the truce leaves Iran politically entrenched and strategically strengthened, particularly through its effective control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for roughly one fifth of the world's oil and gas shipments. The conflict has strained global markets and unsettled Gulf economies that depend on regional stability.

Before the war, the strait functioned as an international waterway despite Iranian interference. Now, Tehran acts as the de facto gatekeeper, reportedly seeking to impose fees for safe passage. While much of Iran's infrastructure has been damaged, its leadership remains firmly in power, its missile and drone capabilities persist, and its regional alliances in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen remain intact.

Gulf officials warn that unless deeper issues are addressed, including missile programs, nuclear material, and freedom of navigation, the ceasefire risks becoming a temporary pause rather than a lasting settlement. Iran has proposed terms that include sanctions relief, recognition of enrichment rights, compensation for war damage, and continued authority over the strait, highlighting the wide gap between the parties.

For Gulf states, any arrangement that leaves the strategic waterway effectively under Iranian control is unacceptable. Analysts caution that if unresolved, the conflict could entrench Iran's leverage over global energy markets and signal a broader shift in the regional order, with worldwide economic consequences.