Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed its longstanding condition for normalizing relations with Israel, insisting that any agreement must include a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood. Despite optimistic statements from US President Donald Trump about a potential breakthrough, Saudi officials have communicated to Washington that they will not move forward without substantial progress on the Palestinian issue. The upcoming visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to the White House is expected to focus on defense cooperation and investment rather than diplomatic ties with Israel, as public mistrust and ongoing conflict in Gaza complicate the prospects for normalization.

Instead of a comprehensive defense treaty, the United States and Saudi Arabia are negotiating a scaled-back security pact that expands military cooperation and technology sharing, with provisions for potential future upgrades. The linkage between defense agreements, normalization with Israel, and Palestinian statehood has created a complex negotiating environment, leading both sides to prioritize immediate security interests while leaving the door open for future diplomatic progress. Saudi Arabia remains cautious, seeking to address its national security needs separately from the broader regional issues, especially as tensions with Iran have eased and political obstacles persist in Washington.