Polls have closed in the Gorton and Denton by-election, leaving Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer facing an anxious wait amid fears of a damaging defeat for Labour. The contest in the Greater Manchester seat has tightened into a three-way race between Labour, Reform and the Green Party, despite Labour securing more than half the vote there at the 2024 general election.

A loss would intensify pressure on Sir Keir following the Peter Mandelson scandal and recent poor national polling, potentially reigniting speculation about his leadership. A victory, however, could offer him temporary relief and help stabilise his government ahead of upcoming local elections.

Reform is seeking another breakthrough after recent gains, with Nigel Farage campaigning heavily in the constituency and urging voters to abandon Labour. The Green Party, under new leader Zack Polanski, is also aiming to position itself as the main alternative to both Labour and Reform, particularly appealing to anti Reform and pro Gaza voters.

The campaign has been marked by fierce exchanges and allegations of dirty tactics, including disputes over tactical voting leaflets and messaging around Gaza. With the seat described as deeply divided and unpredictable, the result is expected to carry significant national consequences.