Fresh official figures are expected to show that inflation in the United Kingdom remained at around 3% in February, as easing fuel and services costs were offset by higher clothing prices and air fares. While some economists believe the rate may have dipped slightly, most forecasts suggest it held steady compared with January.

However, the outlook has grown increasingly uncertain due to conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up wholesale energy prices. Economists warn that the path back to the Bank of England's 2% target may face another 'twist', with higher petrol and gas costs potentially driving inflation higher over the coming months.

The Bank of England has already lifted its inflation projections, warning that recent energy market volatility could delay a return to target. Some analysts now expect inflation to climb above 4% in the second half of 2026 if elevated energy prices persist, adding further pressure to households already dealing with the cost of living.