Iran has demanded the complete removal of United States forces from the Gulf as a condition for peace following a month of war, while senior commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps call for an end to American influence in the region. The conflict has already disrupted United States operations, with bases damaged by Iranian strikes and personnel relocated, raising concerns about the long term stability of Washington’s military presence.

Military and intelligence experts warn that a full withdrawal would trigger a catastrophic power vacuum. They argue it would embolden Iran, strengthen militant proxy groups such as the Islamic State and the Houthis in Yemen, and risk wider regional conflict among rival powers including Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Control of key maritime chokepoints could be threatened, potentially driving oil prices sharply higher and destabilising global markets.

Analysts also caution that a United States exit would hand a strategic victory to Moscow and Beijing, both of which have supported Tehran through energy trade and military cooperation. They warn that Iran could rebuild and expand its missile, drone and potentially chemical weapons capabilities, aided by foreign partnerships, while continuing to threaten shipping lanes and regional allies.

Despite mounting tensions with Gulf states affected by retaliatory strikes, experts conclude that a complete American withdrawal is highly unlikely. They contend that regional governments ultimately depend on the United States security umbrella to deter Iran, and that removing it would leave them exposed to an emboldened and ideologically driven adversary whose technical knowledge and ambitions cannot easily be erased.