Iran has demonstrated that its most powerful deterrent may not be nuclear capability but geography. The recent conflict with the United States and Israel underscored Tehran’s ability to threaten shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly one fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. Its proximity to Iran’s mountainous coastline makes commercial vessels vulnerable to drones and missiles that are difficult to eliminate completely.

Military and intelligence officials in Washington estimate that despite weeks of fighting, Iran retains a significant portion of its drone and missile capacity, enough to jeopardize traffic through the strait in any future confrontation. Tehran’s leaders have signaled that closing the passage would be an early move in another conflict, reinforcing the strategic leverage created by geography alone.

The standoff has left the United States in a delicate position. After announcing its own naval blockade, Washington now faces a waterway that was fully open before the war but is no longer reliably accessible. Even as both sides prepare for new talks in Pakistan ahead of a ceasefire deadline, Iran’s control over the strait has reshaped the regional balance of power and sent a clear message to its adversaries about the enduring strength of its nonnuclear deterrent.