The closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war has exposed how a distant conflict can quickly disrupt daily life in the United Kingdom. The government has launched a secret contingency exercise to prepare for severe knock-on effects, including rising fuel costs, food shortages and energy market turmoil. The International Monetary Fund has warned that the United Kingdom could be the hardest hit among advanced economies by the energy fallout.

Fuel prices have surged, pushing up inflation and increasing mortgage rates, while airlines face jet fuel shortages that threaten higher fares and cancellations. Farmers are warning of fertilizer shortages and rising costs for crops and milk, with some goods at risk of disappearing from shelves. A shortage of carbon dioxide, vital for food processing and preservation, has forced the government to reopen a bioethanol plant to secure domestic supply.

Experts say the crisis highlights the fragility of modern just in time supply chains, which are designed for efficiency rather than resilience. Disruptions to shipping and energy flows could take months to stabilize, potentially leading to higher retail prices later in the year, even if the waterway reopens soon. The episode underscores how tightly interconnected global trade systems leave consumers vulnerable to geopolitical shocks far from home.