Israel and the United States have struck Iran across a far wider area than during the opening phase of the twelve day war in June, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. Recent attacks have reached deep into multiple southern provinces, while Tehran has expanded its retaliation beyond Israel to neighboring countries and American bases. Analysts warn this broader campaign increases the risk of rapid regional escalation and wider instability.

Experts say the conflict now centers on weakening or reshaping the Islamic Republic’s leadership rather than simple deterrence. Following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a temporary leadership council led by Ali Larijani has been proposed to manage the transition, though the regime still needs a new Supreme Leader. Specialists argue that while internal power structures may shift, the emergence of a liberal democracy remains unlikely.

With only a small core of the population seen as loyal to the regime, internal unrest is a growing concern, especially as security forces are stretched by war. Analysts predict Tehran may ultimately seek a compromise to preserve its hold on power, possibly by curbing its nuclear and missile programs. However, they caution that the coming weeks could bring internal fragmentation, defections, and localized violence as central control weakens.