Turkey's ambitious regional strategy, often described as a revival of Ottoman-era influence, is facing mounting challenges as a series of once-celebrated achievements begin to unravel. Ankara had pointed to what it described as the final submission of the Kurdistan Workers Party insurgency as a major domestic and regional victory, reinforcing its claim to renewed strength and stability.

Abroad, Turkish officials highlighted the rapid rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known as al-Jolani, in Syria as evidence of a successful geopolitical playbook previously applied in Libya and Somalia. This approach was presented as proof that Ankara could shape political outcomes beyond its borders and expand its influence across conflict zones.

Additional pillars of this vision included a major energy discovery off the coast of Mogadishu, estimated to hold reserves worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and the growing global reputation of Turkey's defense industry. Ankara also underscored what it portrayed as a close and direct relationship with the president of the United States, suggesting strong backing from Washington.

However, setbacks across these fronts have begun to expose the fragility of this expansive vision, raising questions about the sustainability of Turkey's regional ambitions and the durability of its geopolitical gains.