The war between the United States, Israel, and Iran could mark a turning point in the global order, with consequences extending far beyond the Middle East. Much like the 1991 Gulf War shaped the post-Cold War era, this conflict may influence international relations for decades. While former President George H. W. Bush envisioned a rules-based system led by American consensus and clear military objectives, the goals of the current war remain uncertain, with debate over whether it is about nuclear threats, regime change, or broader strategic positioning.

Reports suggest Iran’s missile capabilities have been significantly degraded, though such capacities can be rebuilt. Questions persist about the intelligence assessments that justified the war and the extent to which political actors advocated for military action. European nations appear divided, with some warning that intervention could repeat the destabilizing consequences of the 2003 Iraq War, including terrorism, migration pressures, and economic instability.

Analysts argue the conflict may reflect a deeper geopolitical transformation toward a multipolar world. Experts in France and the United Arab Emirates suggest the West’s ability to rally broad coalitions is weakening, while China is positioning itself as a defender of stability and diplomatic solutions. The war may therefore signal not just a regional confrontation, but the emergence of a more fragmented international system shaped by shifting alliances and strategic interests rather than a clear East-West divide.