Israeli officials privately told United States diplomats that any large-scale protests against Iran's regime would likely be violently crushed, even as both governments publicly encouraged Iranians to rise up. According to a State Department cable reported by The Washington Post, Israeli officials assessed that the regime was not weakening under joint pressure and remained prepared to fight to the end.

The cable stated that protesters returning to the streets in significant numbers would 'get slaughtered' by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and other security forces, which Israeli officials believe retain the upper hand. Despite this bleak assessment, Israel urged Washington to be ready to support demonstrators if unrest were to grow.

The report comes amid renewed calls for protests by exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi and heightened tensions inside Iran. Analysts noted that the contrast between public encouragement and private pessimism could appear cynical to many Iranians, especially after previous demonstrations were met with lethal force. Recent assessments indicate that despite military setbacks, Iran's leadership and internal security apparatus remain strong enough to deter immediate regime collapse.