United States intelligence officials assess that the ongoing war with Iran is unlikely to produce lasting regime change, according to a report by The Washington Post. Briefings presented to President Donald Trump before the conflict indicated that Iran’s leadership was expected to remain intact and could even emerge emboldened, particularly within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is seen as having successfully confronted both the United States and Israel.

Officials and analysts say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continues to dominate Iran’s political, military, and economic systems, maintaining strong domestic repression capabilities. European and regional sources cited in the report suggest the conflict has allowed the regime to consolidate and even expand its power, becoming more radicalized rather than weakened.

While some observers argue that a best case scenario would involve meaningful internal competition for power, most assessments indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is likely to retain control, potentially with reduced but intact military capabilities. Despite internal confusion and strain within Iran’s leadership, activists inside the country remain uncertain about what a postwar reality under the current regime would look like.