A confidential assessment by the Central Intelligence Agency concludes that Iran could withstand the current United States naval blockade for three to four months before facing far more severe economic strain, according to a report by the Washington Post. The analysis found that despite weeks of strikes by the United States and Israel, Iran retains much of its ballistic missile capability and has restored access to most underground storage facilities.

Officials cited in the report said Iran still possesses roughly three quarters of its mobile missile launchers and about seventy percent of its missile stockpile. The country has reportedly repaired damaged missiles and completed others that were near assembly before the conflict began. The assessment also indicated that Iran maintains a substantial drone arsenal and may be able to resume significant missile production sooner than previously expected.

While President Donald Trump has described Iran's arsenal as mostly destroyed, intelligence officials said the blockade is primarily inflicting economic damage by restricting trade and reducing government revenue. Iran has been storing oil on tankers unable to unload and cutting production to protect infrastructure, and it may seek alternative overland export routes through Central Asia as economic pressure intensifies.