A classified analysis by the Central Intelligence Agency concludes that Iran could withstand a blockade for several months while still maintaining roughly seventy percent of its income. The assessment, delivered to senior officials in Washington, suggests the country retains enough economic resilience to endure sustained pressure.

According to four sources familiar with the document, the findings challenge public claims that the blockade would quickly force Iran to compromise in negotiations to end the war. The report indicates that while the restrictions would hurt Iran’s economy, they may not have the immediate, decisive impact some leaders have predicted.

President Donald Trump has asserted that the blockade deprives Iran of five hundred million dollars per day in oil export revenue. However, the intelligence assessment raises doubts about whether such losses alone would be sufficient to rapidly alter Tehran’s strategic calculations.