The United Arab Emirates' decision to leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is being described by some analysts as a major turning point for the oil producers' group. The move comes during a period of extreme volatility in global energy markets, marked by war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for global oil shipments.

Founded in 1960 to coordinate production and stabilize revenues, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has historically influenced oil prices by adjusting output. Production cuts have typically aimed to raise prices, while increases were intended to ease them. Over time, however, compliance among members has varied, weakening the group's ability to act decisively.

The United Arab Emirates is one of the group's largest producers, pumping about 3.1 million barrels per day in 2025. Outside the organization, it could potentially raise output by around one million barrels daily. In the short term, experts say its departure may have little immediate effect on exports due to regional shipping disruptions, but longer term it could erode the group's pricing power.

The organization's global market share has declined significantly since the 1970s, as countries such as the United States, Canada and Brazil expanded production. Analysts say the exit of the United Arab Emirates may further reduce the group's ability to influence oil prices, marking a shift in power within global energy markets.