Jet fuel prices have surged since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of disruption to summer travel. Europe relies heavily on imports from the Gulf, and with supplies constrained, prices have more than doubled at their peak. Although they have eased slightly, they remain far above pre-conflict levels, putting significant pressure on airlines.

Fuel accounts for a large share of airline operating costs, prompting carriers to raise fares, cut routes and reduce summer schedules. Long-haul flights have seen the sharpest price increases, while some short-haul routes have experienced temporary fare drops as airlines try to stimulate demand. Industry analysts warn that if supplies remain tight, further cancellations could follow, particularly at smaller airports.

Stockpiles across Europe have fallen close to critical levels, and energy officials have cautioned that physical shortages could emerge if alternative supplies fail to fill the gap. Governments in Britain and Brussels are preparing contingency measures, including easing slot rules and adjusting compensation requirements, to help airlines manage disruption.

In the longer term, the crisis has exposed Europe’s dependence on imported aviation fuel and limited refining capacity. While boosting domestic refining or expanding production of sustainable aviation fuel could improve resilience, both would require significant investment and time. For now, airlines and travellers face the prospect of higher costs and a potentially turbulent summer season.