Iran is increasingly using Iraq as a forward base to launch attacks against neighboring states, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and areas near Emirati nuclear facilities. This strategy has transformed Iraq into a frontline in Tehran’s regional confrontation, drawing Gulf states, Syria, Jordan and Israel into a widening crisis. The arrest and extradition of militia commander Mohammed Baqer Al-Saadi by Turkiye to the United States has further exposed Baghdad’s precarious position.

Tehran’s approach reflects a long-term doctrine developed after the Iran-Iraq War: shifting conflict beyond its own borders by building ideologically and militarily aligned local militias. In Iraq, these groups have evolved beyond armed factions into parallel state structures with financial resources, political leverage and partial legitimacy, enabling them to influence or obstruct sovereign decision-making while the government denies responsibility.

As Iran seeks to compensate for setbacks elsewhere in the region, it is activating Iraqi militias even during periods of truce, signaling its intent to maintain pressure through proxy forces regardless of diplomatic outcomes. The United States has responded by targeting militia leaders and attempting to cut off their funding, but the growing entrenchment of these groups makes the Iraq front a central and enduring element of the broader regional security challenge.