Hezbollah responded with only limited rocket and drone fire after the Israeli military assassinated Ahmad Ghaleb Balout, the chief of its Radwan special forces, on May 6. Despite initial fears of a major escalation, the group launched only small numbers of projectiles toward northern Israel, far fewer than the heavy barrages seen earlier in the war.

The muted reaction highlights a shift in the balance between the sides. Israel has maintained control over larger parts of southern Lebanon since the April 17 ceasefire, continued targeted strikes against Hezbollah fighters, and demonstrated its ability to strike senior commanders even in Beirut. While Hezbollah has continued low-level attacks, it has not treated the assassination as grounds for ending the ceasefire entirely.

Several factors appear to explain Hezbollah's restraint. Its rocket stockpile has been significantly reduced, many remaining rockets are short-range and unusable from current positions, and the group has suffered heavy personnel losses compared to Israel. Although Israel has not secured complete quiet in the north, it has reasserted a measure of deterrence and strategic advantage, raising questions about whether Hezbollah may eventually accept some form of limited disarmament.