Pakistan's inflation is projected to surge to between 11 percent and 11.5 percent year-on-year in April, marking a 21-month high, according to a brokerage report. The sharp increase follows a reading of 7.3 percent in March and signals renewed price pressures after a period of relative stability.

The spike is being driven primarily by soaring fuel costs linked to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Petrol prices have climbed nearly 18 percent, while high-speed diesel has jumped more than 50 percent, as global crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel. Higher fuel costs have pushed up transport expenses and contributed to broader increases in housing and utility charges, including liquefied petroleum gas and electricity tariffs.

Although falling wheat and fresh fruit prices are expected to ease food inflation somewhat, analysts warn that rising energy costs could reverse recent disinflation trends and strain household purchasing power. The report also cautioned that if inflation accelerates as expected, real interest rates could turn negative again, complicating monetary policy decisions.