The Geneva watch fair opened this week under the shadow of the Middle East war, adding fresh uncertainty to an already strained luxury sector. Organisers expect about 60000 visitors, up from last year, even as concerns over travel from Gulf states and East Asia weigh on attendance. Industry leaders say the conflict compounds existing pressures including trade tariffs, a strong domestic currency, high gold prices and uneven recovery in China.

Analysts who had predicted a rebound in Swiss watch exports in 2026 are now revising expectations downward, with forecasts shifting from moderate growth to possible stagnation. The Middle East represents just under 10 percent of the global watch market, but has been a key source of growth in recent years, particularly for high-end timepieces.

Featuring 65 brands, the event has become Switzerland’s premier watch showcase since the closure of Baselworld after the coronavirus pandemic. Now partially open to the public, the fair aims to attract younger buyers while brands compete with elaborate displays to highlight craftsmanship and innovation.

Watchmaking is Switzerland’s third-largest export sector. After record-breaking sales following the pandemic, exports declined in 2024 and 2025, reflecting softer demand in China and the impact of United States tariffs, leaving the industry facing a more cautious outlook.